3 #ableg predictions for 2016

The start to a new year wouldn’t be complete without a few provincial political predictions. Here are mine – based on 2015 observations.

In 2016 Albertans will watch …

… the MLA for Calgary-Bow, Deborah Drever, welcomed back to the NDP caucus.

For many this does not seem to be ground breaking but more and more we see this independent member being treated as if she never left the caucus. Her passed private member’s bill that was supported unanimously by the NDP caucus was the icing on the cake in 2015. The bill surfaced after a summer long road trip touring non-profits supporting vulnerable women, no doubt orchestrated by the NPD caucus after our Premier gave her a special assignment. The by-election saw Deborah become a NDP campaigner. And her swearing in was attended by and cheered on by a NDP caucus leader.

But, the less obvious, is a recent community newsletter article that social media politicos are obsessing over. The story the online army of conservatives is professing is the fact that Deborah “copied” a neighbouring MLA’s monthly article. I don’t see it that way. I worked in a constituency office and we would regularly get community related copy intended for newsletters. They were written centrally and many MLA office managers, including me, used the copy to supplement articles or even simply be the entire article. So no, I’m afraid Deborah didn’t copy her neighbouring MLA, she simply used the NDP caucus communications suggested newsletter content – and that’s the story. As an independent she shouldn’t have access to those communications but clearly she does. For the record I live in her constituency and my newsletter was different than the one referenced, which does further confirm the message was indeed a centrally crafted based on specific community needs. The last sign that she is already unofficially back in the fold, and the official announcement is imminent.

… the PC Party’s most progressive voice make a bold political move.

It’s been interesting to watch the PC Party grapple with two core components of the party – conservative and progressive. In order to win back the grassroots support it has lost they have to choose which grassroots support to focus on – those that have looked to the progressive side of the spectrum and are flirting with the Alberta Party or those that looked to right and are flirting with the Wildrose and a conservative merger. In a caucus of over 60 the voices that were considered the extremes of the party were often muted because of the wide range of voice representing the center. Now, with a fraction of those voices on the bench, the progressive voices have gotten louder and so have the conservative ones – which makes the vast differences of opinions in the party more obvious.

One voice has been particularly loud in recent months – unsupportive of a merger, loud on progressive issues, and a defender of the previous government’s social policy. I believe Sandra Jansen will make a bold political move to show her true progressive allegiance. The move will either be a floor crossing to the Alberta Party, which some have already predicted, or a decision to run for PC Party leader with a platform that will attempt to sway progressives back into the fold of the party. She would be the voice of anti-conservative reunification sympathizers.

… a by-election in Calgary-Mountain View.

Tragically Albertans will have to watch a by-election in Calgary-Greenway in 2016. But I believe we will see 2 elections when this writ drops. Calgarians will also go to the polls in Calgary-Mountain View. David Swann has been a true champion for the Liberal movement in Alberta for years and has publicly acknowledged he has considered retirement in the past. As the sole member of the Liberal Party caucus one can assume that he is working long hours but with the Liberals barely on Albertan’s radars those hours may not be paying off.

Plus how could we go one year without a provincial election in our province? Seems to be one of Alberta’s new political staples. J

It will be an interesting race to watch. My prediction for a winner? The Alberta Party. I believe the Alberta Party could attract a high profile candidate, like Matt Grant, who is fresh off a high profile federal campaign, and is maintaining his election ready social media presence.

There is no doubt that this will be another interesting year … policy changes, economic diversification (or attempts at), political protests, progressive movements, and conservative realignment.

It will be a ride – so put on your seatbelts and look forward to an eventful political year.

CP

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